Credence · Continuous actuarial intelligence
The AI-native platform for reserving, pricing, and risk control — actuarial answers on demand, with every step of the mathematics shown.
Built for the profession where “show your work” is the law.
The story
Three hundred years before anyone said “machine learning,” actuaries were building predictive models — pricing the unknowable, putting numbers on the future, and standing behind those numbers with their names. It is the most mathematically serious profession in business.
And it runs on the least serious workflow in business. Ask any actuary how a reserving cycle is actually spent: weeks assembling and reconciling data, days coaxing it through software designed when “the cloud” meant weather. The judgment — the part only they can do — gets whatever hours are left before the deadline.
Then the answer ships as a PDF, and the world it described has already moved.
The constraint was never actuarial talent.
It was the interface between the actuary and the answer.
The world outside the model
Cyber events don’t wait for the quarter to close. Climate volatility doesn’t respect the annual pricing study. Social inflation doesn’t pause while the triangles refresh. The industry that invented modeling the future is reporting on it in arrears.
Cat, cyber, and casualty shocks arrive between reviews — exactly where cycle-based reserving is blind.
Books grow, mix shifts, treaties attach. The portfolio you priced is never the portfolio you hold.
Renewables, AI liability, parametrics — the future keeps writing lines your triangles have never seen.
The platform
You ask the question the way you’d ask the sharpest actuary you know. Credence agents assemble the data, run the methods, stress the assumptions — and return the answer with every step shown.
Reserving, pricing, and monitoring queries — no batch jobs, no export-import ballet.
Data assembly, reconciliation, method runs, and sensitivity sweeps happen in minutes, not weeks.
Methods, factors, assumptions, and lineage attached to every figure. A glass box, never a black one.
agent plan · run #8841
2023 liability is developing 2.8 points above the booked pick, concentrated in latest two diagonals.
The method
Reserving, pricing, and monitoring that refresh as data lands — not when the calendar says so. The quarter becomes a checkpoint, not a discovery.
Plain-language questions in, actuarial-grade answers out. Agents do the data janitorial work and draft the memo; your team does the thinking.
Every number traceable to a method, an assumption, and a data lineage — built for the profession where defensibility is not optional.
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Why “Credence”
Z — credibility factor · — your own experience · μ — the collective mean
Credibility theory is the century-old actuarial formula for blending your own experience with the weight of the world’s evidence. That is not just our name — it is our operating principle.
The machine brings scale, memory, and speed. The actuary brings judgment, context, and accountability. Credence is the weighting between them — and the actuary always holds the pen.
Request a demo
A 30-minute working session on your lines of business — reserving, pricing, or risk monitoring. Bring a hard question.